Preliminary findings in a new economic impact study on the Tijuana River sewage crisis show its 20-year impact is projected at up to $7.9 billion as a result of illness and the impact on area recreation and business.
These economic losses were presented as preliminary data on Sept. 15 to the San Diego County Board of Supervisors by ECOnorthwest, selected to conduct the Economic Costs and Impacts of the Tijuana River Sewage Crisis study commissioned by the board one year ago.
For decades, untreated flows in the Tijuana River have caused environmental, public health and economic concerns among South Bay communities continually leading to beach closures.
“It’s unconscionable that this continues, but I think it’s helpful to just be able to put a hard number on what this is doing to our entire region and that we really cannot ignore this crisis anymore,” said Chair Terra Lawson-Remer, whose district includes Coronado. “… $8 billion over 20 years in lost economic activity. That is shocking.”
Chris Blakney, principal at ECOnorthwest, presented the background for the study, the process for stakeholder engagement and outreach, a sampling of preliminary findings and a series of preliminary recommendations for the county.
According to Blakney, the study hypothesized that the sewage crisis had impacted residents, communities, businesses, and visitors.
“We looked for evidence that could be inferred or measured in terms of costs associated with those impacts,” said Blakney. “This research included economic research and analysis, a review of water and air quality studies, and stakeholder and community engagement.”
Blakney said the study’s methodology uses a framework for a cost pathway analysis beginning with the physical aspect of the crisis leading to illness rates, impacts on population and migration or impacts on visitors and tourism, and the influence of those intermediate effects on tourism and recreation economy, public finance, property, public health and infrastructure costs.
“We created this framework to be able to speak to some of these costs, to be able to show which ones are monetized and which ones are remaining kind of in a theoretical implication perspective,” said Blakney.
Blakney said outreach took a two-phased approach wherein they reached out to 40 organizations to set up guided focus groups to receive input from their constituents, their experiences, and their insights.
“We also set up a website with four targeted surveys, one each for residents, businesses, visitors, and regional organizations,” he said.
According to the study’s online website, surveys welcomed responses from people in the affected area. Earlier this year, the county announced the surveys were open to people near the Tijuana River Valley. The geographical boundaries of the study were not specified by Blakney during his presentation.
Blakney reports a 42% response rate across the focus groups and 244 people who participated in one or more of the online surveys also available in Spanish. According to the presentation slides, survey flyers were distributed at local businesses in Imperial Beach and Coronado.
Across focus groups and surveys, Blakney said people are saying that they’re getting sick, people are saying they’re changing both their consumer behaviors and their recreating behaviors, and businesses are saying that they are losing customers.
According to Blakney, data shows public awareness increasing over time as the crisis has also increased.
Blakney said the study’s analysis is centered around three events of increased transboundary flows in 2017, 2020 and 2023.
“When we look at business starts, we see an immediate impact and lack of business or a reduction in business investment in our study area following each of these events,” said Blakney.
According to Blakney, people are visiting South Bay beaches less frequently.
“The reduction in visitor spending in these communities related to reduction in visitors to the local businesses and local economy measures between $125.6 and $503.5 million dollars annually,” said Blakney. “…Across a 20-year horizon, if unmitigated, this crisis will cost the county economy between $1.9 and $7.9 billion.”
Blakney also reported a reduction in transit occupancy tax revenues for Imperial Beach, with a 27.8% drop.
“We’re also observing Coronado growing but growing at a far more measured rate than what we’re seeing in the economy as a whole,” said Blakney.
Blakney said the study area is experiencing 4% lower average school attendance compared to other benchmark communities, at a cost of $16 million to $38 million per year. However, the presentation slides note lower daily attendance cannot be directly correlated to the sewage crisis.
The study assessed property values and Blakney said while they theorized marginal reduction or a slower growth rate in property tax revenues or market values, that was not the case.
“We actually found that property values were slightly higher than a control geography,” said Blakney. “And our hypothesis for that is that, especially in Imperial Beach, we’re talking about a community that is far more affordable so we’re likely seeing some substitution effects based on relative affordability.”
Findings led to four recommendations for the county to enhance communication with residents and visitors, rebuild the region’s tourism and recreation, financially support affected businesses and advocate for permanent infrastructure investment.
According to Blakney, the final report is expected by the end of October.
“The portions released to date are unlikely to change; however, the final report will incorporate additional analyses that are still underway,” says a board letter about the presentation.
During public comment, people supported and criticized the county’s study.
“There’s criticism out there that we shouldn’t be doing another economic or any other type of study, but it’s absolutely crucial that we do because this actually presents the real data that we can base governance and emergency-based decisions on,” said Chair Pro Tempore Paloma Aguirre. “This is what we bring to the state to ask for more aid. This is what we bring to the federal government to ask for more aid.”
Regarding the economic losses, Supervisor Jim Desmond said businesses in South County are suffering due to Mexico’s actions.
“This just shows, I think, our continued need to apply pressure on Mexico and put an end to the flow of sewage into the United States,” said Desmond.
Lawson-Remer said the study offers more evidence in support of an initiative to treat and capture sewage from the Tijuana River that she and Aguirre launched earlier this month.
“Whatever that cost might be on the county side … it is far dwarfed by the loss not only to public health and clean water and well-being, but also economically…” she added.
